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04/15/2008

ECONOMIC TRENDS


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EDITORIAL:

Spring Time Election
SPECIAL REPORT:
Afghanistan File
INTERNATIONAL:
Democracy Putin-Style
REGIONAL:
Iraqi Imbroglio
MEDIA REPORT:
Russian Presidential Elections
ANALYSIS:
Sanctions
VIEWPOINT:
A Glance At The US Elections
SOCIAL DIARY:
The Ravand Lectures
2008 TRENDS & FORECASTS:
GDP Growth Rates

EDITORIAL:
Springtime Election

We are on the threshold of springtime; the most glorious manifestation of the potentials that nature holds. It is a time of revival and renewal, where the endless diversities of the universe intermingle together to give birth to new phenomena. On this note, I wish prosperity for all readers of Economic Trends, the staff members of the Ravand Institute, and all those interested in analyzing, reading and studying new trends and developments. I pass on good wishes to them on the advent of spring. This year, spring enjoys an exceptional significance in that one of the most key foundations of the Islamic political system, that is, the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Majlis), is preparing for a nationwide popular election. I would like to mention a few points in this regard:
1- The electoral process is the most important principle of our revolution and our system of government. It is a principle that finds its meaning in the three main slogans of the Islamic Revolution – independence, freedom, Islamic Republic. It is a source of pride for our Islamic system that over the past 29 years, the country has managed, organized and conducted repeated elections. In doing so, it has validated itself through people’s participation, and the input of their votes. Of course, several self-styled elections were held in the aftermath of the Constitutional uprising, and throughout Pahlavi rule. What distinguishes elections in the Islamic Republic is that there is multiplicity, and they are free and fair. It is for this reason that securing massive participation of the populace – from all walks of life and from different strata – and forming a diversified Majlis, is considered as a true success. Among many pillars of our Islamic system, one foundation that can tolerate the diversity of thought and the multiplicity of orientations is the Majlis. It goes without saying that other bodies in charge of management of society should also reflect the dynamism and diversity characteristic of the nature of the Majlis. There is a great hope that with regard to the prevailing political contests and challenges, we will witness representation of different groups in the Eighth Majlis -- all loyal to the Islamic system of government. A powerful Majlis will be a strong pivot for the government, and a guarantor of national unity and independence of the country.

2- We hope that the Eighth Majlis, enjoying such texture and quality, will help the government establish order in the economic sector, particularly with the challenge of minimizing inflation, etc. This can be accomplished only through support for the authority of the legislature, enforcement of law, and the establishment of order. Most importantly, the Majlis should observe the difference between the legislative, executive and judicial branches of government.

3- The most significant step that can be taken towards putting the country’s economy into order is to employ mechanisms for harnessing inflation. This can be accomplished by granting more independence to the country’s officials in charge of the monetary system, in general, and the Central of Bank of Iran, in particular. Independence of the Central Bank will provide the necessary environment for the management of monetary policies. In case of implementation of proper monetary policies, the pressure of inflation will be eased and value of the currency will be increased. Setting pre-determined and prescribed rates will cause disturbances in the process of supply and demand for money, and will subsequently intensify inflation. On the other hand, credit policies of the banks should be adopted with regard to such targets as the control of liquidity and inflation as well as economic factors of the projects. In doing so, efforts should be made to refrain from granting unlimited facilities within noneconomic frameworks, and according to social considerations. Unprecedented increase in bank credits and an increase in their unpaid dues and delayed payments is a manifestation of the domination of non-economic considerations over credit policies of the country’s monetary system. Such an approach should be corrected. No doubt, independence of the Central Bank will be highly effective in this capacity. The Eighth Majlis should also help the government organize the economic planning system in a suitable way. Absence of a proper mechanism for short, medium, and longterm planning and lack of attention for pre-determined targets would also cause disturbances and deviations in prices. Furthermore, with regard to the issue of councils, although dissolution or merger of some of the councils would be considered as a suitable measure in terms of accelerating the process of decision-making, such a policy cannot be applied in the case of all decision-making councils in the area of economy. In addition, the state planning system itself is in need of a strong organization with full authority for monitoring economic activities. By rendering assistance to the government in this regard, the Majlis can prepare the ground for the creation of a trustful and predictable atmosphere that guarantees economic security.

4- The Majlis should follow up implementation of its approvals. The process for ratification of major laws consumes the capital, time and energy of the nation and the representatives as well. At the meantime, the most important subjects to be monitored are the 20-year Vision Plan, five-year development plans, general state policies and the directives issued with regard to Principle 44 of the Constitution. This reality that the country, in the post-war era and after spending tens of thousands of hours of work at expert level, has been able to reach a relative consensus over the strategy for the development of the country should not be ignored by any means. Such strategy has been manifested within the framework of the 20-year Vision Plan and in the form of five year development plans. In fact, such plans are among major acts and first priorities of the country and, therefore, should not be treated as ordinary laws and regulations. To this end, the Eighth Majlis is expected to pay special attention to such an important task. What is also expected from the future Majlis is its support for the government and for the main players within it. The Majlis plays a crucial role in the appointment of senior government officials, namely the ministers. In actual fact, the Majlis plays a major role in the appointment of experienced officials, and in supervision of their performance. Appointment of senior executive officials who enjoy the required expertise and specialization, will lead to the adoption of more satisfactory policies and, subsequently, optimum performance. Many have placed hope in such an event and sincerely wish for an energetic, meaningful and diverse election, in the tradition of the revolution. We welcome representation of the people in advance and hope that the Eighth Majlis will herald the opening of a new chapter in the country’s development, and provide an opportunity for the prominence of the country among other countries.
S.M.H. Adeli, Ph.D., Editor-in-Chief


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